First League (Bulgaria) · Sun, Oct 11 · 14:30 · Cherno More Varna vs Levski Sofia
Likeliest: Levski Sofia win · 60%
Likely score: 0–2
A tight one: we make it 60% for the away win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cherno More Varna13%17%−4
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Levski Sofia60%57%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 44% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | 45% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 40% | 43% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 87% | 83% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 18% | 23% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 0.8 | 2.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cherno More Varna
WinLossLossDrawDraw
- Sep 19 · at Arda Kardzhali (A)1-1
- Sep 11 · v Lokomotiv Sofia (H)2-2
- Sep 6 · at Lokomotiv Plovdiv (A)0-1
- Aug 30 · at CSKA Sofia (A)1-3
- Aug 21 · v FK Dunav Ruse (H)3-1
Levski Sofia
DrawWinWinDrawLoss
- Sep 17 · v Red Bull Salzburg (H)0-1
- Sep 13 · at Botev Vratsa (A)0-0
- Sep 5 · v FC CSKA 1948 Sofia (H)1-0
- Sep 2 · at Slavia Sofia (A)2-1
- Aug 29 · at Botev Plovdiv (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Cherno More Varna | Levski Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 10% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 70% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 3-6-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.