League Two (England) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 · Chesterfield vs Crewe Alexandra
Likeliest: Chesterfield win · 51%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 52%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chesterfield51%52%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+2
OursMarket
Crewe Alexandra23%23%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 48% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 69% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chesterfield
DrawLossWinDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · at Port Vale (A)0-1
- Oct 10 · at Crawley Town (A)2-2
- Oct 3 · v Tranmere Rovers (H)4-2
- Sep 26 · at Cheltenham Town (A)1-2
- Sep 22 · v Port Vale (H)1-1
Crewe Alexandra
DrawWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 17 · v Rochdale (H)3-2
- Oct 10 · at Swindon Town (A)1-0
- Oct 6 · at Blackpool (A)2-2
- Oct 3 · v Bristol Rovers (H)3-1
- Sep 26 · at Rotherham United (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Chesterfield | Crewe Alexandra |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 4-6-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.