Football League Trophy (England) · Tue, Sep 22 · 18:00 · Chesterfield vs Port Vale
Likeliest: Chesterfield win · 43%
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chesterfield43%44%0
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Port Vale33%32%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 60% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 63% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chesterfield
DrawDrawWinWinWin
- Sep 19 · v York City (H)2-0
- Sep 15 · v Manchester City U21 (H)5-3
- Sep 12 · at Oldham Athletic (A)2-1
- Sep 5 · v Barnet (H)3-3
- Sep 1 · v Gillingham (H)1-1
Port Vale
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- Sep 19 · at Walsall (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · v Exeter City (H)1-0
- Sep 5 · at Salford City (A)0-1
- Sep 1 · at Swindon Town (A)1-3
- Aug 29 · v Crewe Alexandra (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Chesterfield | Port Vale |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 2-0-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.