Major League Soccer (USA) · Thu, Oct 15 · 00:30 · Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union
Likeliest: Philadelphia Union win · 40%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 40% for the away win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chicago Fire35%37%−2
OursMarket
Draw26%24%+2
OursMarket
Philadelphia Union40%39%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 76% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 49% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chicago Fire
LossLossWinWinWin
- Oct 10 · v New York City FC (H)2-1
- Oct 7 · v Vancouver Whitecaps (H)3-1
- Sep 26 · at Charlotte FC (A)1-0
- Sep 20 · at Nashville SC (A)0-3
- Sep 13 · v New England Revolution (H)1-2
Philadelphia Union
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 10 · v Real Salt Lake (H)2-1
- Sep 26 · v Orlando City SC (H)4-2
- Sep 20 · at Sporting Kansas City (A)4-3
- Sep 14 · at San Diego FC (A)5-0
- Sep 9 · v FC Cincinnati (H)5-0
| Last 10 games | Chicago Fire | Philadelphia Union |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 8-2-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 3.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-1-2 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.