NWSL (USA) · Sun, Oct 4 · 20:00 · Chicago Stars FC vs Denver Summit FC
Likeliest: Denver Summit FC win · 72%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 63% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chicago Stars FC11%14%−4
OursMarket
Draw17%18%−1
OursMarket
Denver Summit FC72%68%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 50% | +13 |
| Double chance 1X | 28% | 32% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 90% | 86% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 13% | 17% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 2.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chicago Stars FC
LossLossDrawLossDraw
- Sep 26 · at NJ/NY Gotham FC (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · v Washington Spirit (H)0-3
- Sep 13 · at Portland Thorns FC (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v North Carolina Courage (H)0-6
- Aug 30 · at Denver Summit FC (A)1-6
Denver Summit FC
WinDrawDrawWinLoss
- Sep 26 · at Kansas City Current (A)1-4
- Sep 20 · v Seattle Reign FC (H)2-1
- Sep 17 · v Bay FC (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Angel City FC (A)3-3
- Sep 6 · v NJ/NY Gotham FC (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Chicago Stars FC | Denver Summit FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.6 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-4 | 1-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.