NWSL (USA) · Sat, Oct 24 · 00:00 · Chicago Stars FC vs Houston Dash
Likeliest: Houston Dash win · 62%
Likely score: 0–1
A 62% away win. The market says 57%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chicago Stars FC15%20%−5
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Houston Dash62%57%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 38% | 43% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 85% | 80% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 20% | 25% | −6 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chicago Stars FC
DrawLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 18 · v Seattle Reign FC (H)1-3
- Oct 4 · v Denver Summit FC (H)0-3
- Sep 26 · at NJ/NY Gotham FC (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · v Washington Spirit (H)0-3
- Sep 13 · at Portland Thorns FC (A)1-1
Houston Dash
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Oct 18 · v Orlando Pride (H)1-2
- Oct 4 · v Washington Spirit (H)2-3
- Sep 27 · at Portland Thorns FC (A)1-1
- Sep 20 · at Boston Legacy FC (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · v Utah Royals FC (H)0-1
| Last 10 games | Chicago Stars FC | Houston Dash |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-6 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.