NWSL (USA) · Sun, Oct 18 · 23:00 · Chicago Stars FC vs Seattle Reign FC
Likeliest: Seattle Reign FC win · 76%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 61% for both teams to score. The market says 42%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chicago Stars FC7%11%−4
OursMarket
Draw17%18%−1
OursMarket
Seattle Reign FC76%72%+5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 42% | +18 |
| Double chance 1X | 24% | 28% | −5 |
| Double chance X2 | 93% | 89% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 8% | 13% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 0.8 | 2.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chicago Stars FC
LossDrawLossDrawLoss
- Oct 4 · v Denver Summit FC (H)0-3
- Sep 26 · at NJ/NY Gotham FC (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · v Washington Spirit (H)0-3
- Sep 13 · at Portland Thorns FC (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v North Carolina Courage (H)0-6
Seattle Reign FC
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 3 · v North Carolina Courage (H)0-1
- Sep 26 · v Boston Legacy FC (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Denver Summit FC (A)1-2
- Sep 17 · at Angel City FC (A)1-3
- Sep 13 · v Bay FC (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Chicago Stars FC | Seattle Reign FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.5 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.7 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-5 | 2-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.