Friendly International (World) · Tue, Oct 6 · 11:35 · China vs Tajikistan
Likeliest: China win · 46%
A 31% draw. The market says 27%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
China46%53%−7
OursMarket
Draw31%27%+5
OursMarket
Tajikistan23%20%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 46% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 80% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 47% | +7 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 73% | −5 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 72% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
China
WinDrawWinLossLoss
- Oct 2 · v Palestine (H)0-5
- Sep 27 · v New Zealand (H)0-3
- Sep 24 · v Maldives (H)3-0
- Jun 9 · v Thailand (H)0-0
- Jun 5 · at Singapore (A)2-1
Tajikistan
WinWinDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 28 · v Palestine (H)2-4
- Sep 23 · at Azerbaijan (A)0-0
- Jun 9 · v India (H)1-1
- Jun 5 · v India (H)3-1
- Jun 5 · at Cambodia (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | China | Tajikistan |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-2 | 4-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 22% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.