Premier Division (South Africa) · Sat, Sep 12 · 15:30 · Chippa United vs Mamelodi Sundowns
Likeliest: Mamelodi Sundowns win · 75%
A tight one: we make it 75% for the away win. The market says 72%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chippa United8%10%−2
OursMarket
Draw18%18%0
OursMarket
Mamelodi Sundowns75%72%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 34% | 35% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 25% | 28% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 92% | 90% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 9% | 12% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 0.7 | 2.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chippa United
DrawDrawLossDrawDraw
- Sep 5 · v Milford FC (H)0-0
- Aug 25 · at Siwelele FC (A)1-1
- Aug 16 · v Orlando Pirates (H)0-3
- Aug 11 · v Richards Bay FC (H)1-1
- Aug 1 · at Lamontville Golden Arrows (A)0-0
Mamelodi Sundowns
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 9 · v Siwelele FC (H)3-0
- Sep 6 · at Lamontville Golden Arrows (A)2-1
- Sep 2 · v Milford FC (H)2-0
- Aug 26 · v AmaZulu FC (H)5-2
- Aug 19 · v Marumo Gallants FC (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Chippa United | Mamelodi Sundowns |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-4 | 7-3-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 5-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.