Super League (China) · Sat, Oct 24 · 07:30 · Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs Qingdao Hainiu
Likeliest: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win · 74%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 74% for the home win. The market says 71%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC74%71%+3
OursMarket
Draw17%18%−1
OursMarket
Qingdao Hainiu9%11%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 58% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 92% | 89% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 26% | 29% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 90% | 87% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC
LossDrawLossDrawDraw
- Oct 17 · at Yunnan Yukun (A)1-1
- Oct 11 · v Shandong Taishan (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Shanghai Shenhua (H)1-3
- Aug 29 · at Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang (A)1-1
- Aug 23 · v Dalian Yingbo FC (H)0-1
Qingdao Hainiu
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 17 · v Liaoning Tieren FC (H)0-4
- Oct 9 · v Beijing Guoan (H)0-3
- Sep 5 · at Dalian Yingbo FC (A)1-2
- Aug 29 · v Wuhan Three Towns (H)1-5
- Aug 23 · at Shanghai Port (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Chongqing Tonglianglong FC | Qingdao Hainiu |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-5-5 | 0-0-10 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-5-4 | 1-0-9 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.