Super League (China) · Sun, Oct 11 · 11:35 · Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs Shandong Taishan
Likeliest: Shandong Taishan win · 38%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 38% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC34%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+2
OursMarket
Shandong Taishan38%37%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 66% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC
LossDrawLossDrawLoss
- Sep 6 · v Shanghai Shenhua (H)1-3
- Aug 29 · at Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang (A)1-1
- Aug 23 · v Dalian Yingbo FC (H)0-1
- Aug 14 · at Qingdao West Coast (A)0-0
- Aug 9 · v Shanghai Port (H)2-3
Shandong Taishan
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Sep 5 · v Shenzhen Peng City (H)1-1
- Aug 28 · at Shanghai Shenhua (A)3-2
- Aug 22 · at Qingdao West Coast (A)0-2
- Aug 14 · v Qingdao Hainiu (H)3-1
- Aug 9 · v Tianjin Jinmen Tiger (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Chongqing Tonglianglong FC | Shandong Taishan |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-4-6 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 4-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.