Super League (China) · Sun, Sep 6 · 11:00 · Chongqing Tonglianglong FC vs Shanghai Shenhua
Likeliest: Chongqing Tonglianglong FC win · 41%
A 41% home win. The market says 28%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC41%28%+13
OursMarket
Draw28%25%+2
OursMarket
Shanghai Shenhua32%47%−15
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 56% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 58% | −9 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 53% | +15 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 72% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 37% | +19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chongqing Tonglianglong FC
LossLossDrawLossDraw
- Aug 29 · at Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang (A)1-1
- Aug 23 · v Dalian Yingbo FC (H)0-1
- Aug 14 · at Qingdao West Coast (A)0-0
- Aug 9 · v Shanghai Port (H)2-3
- Aug 2 · at Shenzhen Peng City (A)0-2
Shanghai Shenhua
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Aug 28 · v Shandong Taishan (H)2-3
- Aug 22 · at Chengdu Rongcheng (A)5-4
- Aug 18 · v Beijing Guoan (H)0-3
- Aug 15 · v Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang (H)4-1
- Aug 8 · at Qingdao Hainiu (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Chongqing Tonglianglong FC | Shanghai Shenhua |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.