Premier League (Ukraine) · Sun, Oct 25 · 11:00 · Chornomorets Odesa vs Karpaty Lviv
Likeliest: Karpaty Lviv win · 59%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 59% for the away win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chornomorets Odesa16%20%−5
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Karpaty Lviv59%55%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 41% | 45% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 84% | 80% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 21% | 27% | −6 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chornomorets Odesa
DrawLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 17 · at Zoria Luhansk (A)1-2
- Oct 10 · v Metalist 1925 (H)1-2
- Sep 18 · v Obolon Kyiv (H)1-1
- Sep 14 · at Shakhtar Donetsk (A)0-2
- Sep 4 · v FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv (H)0-0
Karpaty Lviv
LossWinDrawLossDraw
- Oct 18 · v FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi (H)2-2
- Oct 11 · at Dynamo Kyiv (A)0-1
- Sep 20 · v Veres Rivne (H)1-1
- Sep 11 · at Kolos Kovalivka (A)2-0
- Sep 5 · v Shakhtar Donetsk (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Chornomorets Odesa | Karpaty Lviv |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.6 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.