K League 2 (South Korea) · Sat, Sep 19 · 07:30 · Chungnam Asan FC vs Cheonan City FC
Likeliest: Chungnam Asan FC win · 45%
A tight one: we make it 45% for the home win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Chungnam Asan FC45%46%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%27%+1
OursMarket
Cheonan City FC28%28%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 72% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Chungnam Asan FC
DrawLossWinLossLoss
- Sep 12 · v Cheongju FC (H)0-1
- Sep 6 · at Suwon Samsung Bluewings (A)0-2
- Aug 23 · v Yongin City FC (H)2-1
- Aug 16 · at Daegu FC (A)0-2
- Aug 7 · v Ansan Greeners FC (H)1-1
Cheonan City FC
DrawLossLossDrawDraw
- Sep 13 · at Suwon FC (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Hwaseong FC (H)1-1
- Aug 28 · at Jeonnam Dragons (A)0-1
- Aug 22 · v Suwon Samsung Bluewings (H)0-1
- Aug 16 · at Gimpo FC (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Chungnam Asan FC | Cheonan City FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 0-4-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-1 | 1-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.