Copa Sudamericana (South America) · Fri, Aug 14 · 00:30 · Cienciano vs Botafogo
Likeliest: Botafogo win · 41%
A 41% away win. The market says 30%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cienciano33%41%−8
OursMarket
Draw26%28%−2
OursMarket
Botafogo41%30%+10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 49% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 53% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 70% | −10 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 59% | +8 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 58% | −13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cienciano
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Aug 6 · at Alianza Atlético de Sullana (A)0-1
- Aug 2 · v Universitario (H)2-0
- Jul 30 · v Lanús (H)4-0
- Jul 25 · at ADC Juan Pablo II (A)0-2
- Jul 23 · at Lanús (A)0-2
Botafogo
LossWinDrawWinDraw
- Aug 9 · v Fluminense (H)1-1
- Jul 26 · at Cruzeiro (A)1-0
- Jul 23 · v Vitória (H)0-0
- Jul 16 · v Santos (H)2-1
- May 30 · at Bahia (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Cienciano | Botafogo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.