Copa Sudamericana (South America) · Thu, Jul 30 · 00:30 · Cienciano vs Lanús
Likeliest: Cienciano win · 42%
We make it 64% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 53%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cienciano42%47%−4
OursMarket
Draw31%27%+3
OursMarket
Lanús27%26%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 36% | 47% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 39% | 49% | −10 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 53% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 73% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 64% | −4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cienciano
DrawWinLossLossLoss
- Jul 25 · at ADC Juan Pablo II (A)0-2
- Jul 23 · at Lanús (A)0-2
- Jul 18 · v Melgar (H)1-3
- May 31 · v Club Sporting Cristal (H)3-2
- May 27 · v Juventud de Las Piedras (H)1-1
Lanús
LossWinLossWinWin
- Jul 26 · v San Lorenzo (H)1-0
- Jul 23 · v Cienciano (H)2-0
- May 30 · at Instituto De Córdoba (A)1-2
- May 26 · v Mirassol (H)1-0
- May 21 · at LDU Quito (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Cienciano | Lanús |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 10% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.