Liga 1 (Peru) · Wed, Sep 30 · 20:00 · Cienciano vs Los Chankas CYC
Likeliest: Cienciano win · 73%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 73% for the home win. The market says 70%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cienciano73%70%+3
OursMarket
Draw16%18%−2
OursMarket
Los Chankas CYC11%12%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 84% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 54% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 88% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 27% | 30% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 84% | 82% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 87% | 86% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.8 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cienciano
LossWinWinLossLoss
- Sep 23 · at Asociación Deportiva Tarma (A)1-2
- Sep 18 · at Montevideo City Torque (A)0-3
- Sep 11 · v Montevideo City Torque (H)2-0
- Sep 4 · at FC Cajamarca (A)5-2
- Aug 31 · v Cusco FC (H)1-2
Los Chankas CYC
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Sep 12 · v FC Cajamarca (H)1-2
- Sep 6 · at Club Sporting Cristal (A)0-5
- Aug 29 · v ADC Juan Pablo II (H)3-4
- Aug 23 · at Universitario (A)0-3
- Aug 15 · v Melgar (H)0-3
| Last 10 games | Cienciano | Los Chankas CYC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 2.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.