Copa Sudamericana (South America) · Fri, Sep 11 · 00:30 · Cienciano vs Montevideo City Torque
Likeliest: Montevideo City Torque win · 39%
A tight one: we make it 39% for the away win. The market says 15%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cienciano36%61%−25
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+2
OursMarket
Montevideo City Torque39%15%+24
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 51% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 50% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 85% | −24 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 39% | +25 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 80% | −33 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cienciano
DrawLossLossLossWin
- Sep 4 · at FC Cajamarca (A)5-2
- Aug 31 · v Cusco FC (H)1-2
- Aug 23 · at Sport Boys (A)1-5
- Aug 21 · at Botafogo (A)0-1
- Aug 16 · v Deportivo Garcilaso (H)0-0
Montevideo City Torque
WinWinWinWinWin
- Sep 4 · v Cerro Largo (H)2-1
- Aug 29 · at Defensor Sporting (A)3-1
- Aug 23 · v Montevideo Wanderers (H)5-1
- Aug 20 · v Tigre (H)2-1
- Aug 15 · at Juventud de Las Piedras (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Cienciano | Montevideo City Torque |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 7-3-0 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.