Liga 1 (Peru) · Sun, Oct 18 · 23:30 · Cienciano vs Universidad Técnica de Cajamarca
Likeliest: Cienciano win · 72%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 72% for the home win. The market says 74%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cienciano72%74%−2
OursMarket
Draw18%16%+1
OursMarket
Universidad Técnica de Cajamarca10%9%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 65% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 90% | 91% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 28% | 26% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 84% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 88% | 89% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 2.7 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cienciano
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Oct 8 · at CD Moquegua (A)2-0
- Sep 30 · v Los Chankas CYC (H)1-1
- Sep 23 · at Asociación Deportiva Tarma (A)1-2
- Sep 18 · at Montevideo City Torque (A)0-3
- Sep 11 · v Montevideo City Torque (H)2-0
Universidad Técnica de Cajamarca
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 18 · v CD Moquegua (H)0-1
- Oct 11 · v Club Sporting Cristal (H)0-1
- Oct 10 · at Asociación Deportiva Tarma (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Sport Huancayo (A)2-3
- Sep 19 · v Cusco FC (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Cienciano | Universidad Técnica de Cajamarca |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 1-1-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.