Primera Nacional (Argentina) · Sat, Oct 24 · 20:00 · Ciudad de Bolivar vs Club Atletico Colón
Likeliest: draw · 37%
We make it 37% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 33%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Ciudad de Bolivar30%33%−3
OursMarket
Draw37%33%+3
OursMarket
Club Atletico Colón34%34%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 65% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 33% | +4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 43% | 39% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 67% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 63% | 67% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 49% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Ciudad de Bolivar
LossWinWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · at San Miguel (A)2-1
- Oct 11 · v San Telmo (H)1-0
- Oct 3 · at Acassuso (A)1-0
- Sep 26 · v Chaco For Ever (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Club Ferro Carril Oeste (A)0-1
Club Atletico Colón
WinDrawWinDrawDraw
- Oct 17 · v Almirante Brown (H)2-2
- Oct 10 · at Mitre (A)0-0
- Oct 3 · v Estudiantes de Buenos Aires (H)1-0
- Sep 26 · at All Boys (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · v Los Andes (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Ciudad de Bolivar | Club Atletico Colón |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-1 | 1-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.