División Profesional (Bolivia) · Mon, Oct 12 · 21:15 · Club Always Ready vs Independiente Petrolero
Likeliest: Club Always Ready win · 90%
Likely score: 3–0
A tight one: we make it 90% for the home win. The market says 87%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Club Always Ready90%87%+3
OursMarket
Draw6%8%−2
OursMarket
Independiente Petrolero3%4%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 79% | 79% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 43% | 46% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 97% | 96% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 10% | 13% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 94% | 92% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 97% | 95% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 3.7 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Club Always Ready
DrawDrawWinWinWin
- Sep 16 · at Nacional Potosí (A)4-0
- Sep 13 · v Guabirá (H)6-0
- Sep 5 · at Oriente Petrolero (A)2-1
- Aug 27 · v Club Aurora (H)2-2
- Aug 23 · at CD Real Tomayapo (A)1-1
Independiente Petrolero
LossWinLossLossLoss
- Sep 18 · v San Antonio Bulo-Bulo (H)1-3
- Sep 13 · at FC Universitario de Vinto (A)1-3
- Sep 6 · v Bolívar (H)0-4
- Aug 27 · v Guabirá (H)3-1
- Aug 22 · at Nacional Potosí (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Club Always Ready | Independiente Petrolero |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-4-0 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-0 | 2-0-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.