Leagues Cup (North & Central America) · Thu, Sep 3 · 03:30 · Club América vs CF Monterrey
Likeliest: Club América win · 50%
A 50% home win. The market says 42%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Club América50%42%+7
OursMarket
Draw24%27%−2
OursMarket
CF Monterrey26%31%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 69% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 58% | −7 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 73% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 57% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Club América
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Aug 30 · v Club Puebla (H)2-0
- Aug 27 · v Columbus Crew (H)2-0
- Aug 22 · at FC Juárez (A)2-1
- Aug 16 · v Atlético San Luis (H)3-0
- Aug 14 · v Austin FC (H)1-1
CF Monterrey
DrawWinLossWinLoss
- Aug 31 · v Atlético San Luis (H)1-3
- Aug 26 · v Chicago Fire (H)2-1
- Aug 22 · at Club León (A)0-2
- Aug 16 · v FC Juárez (H)6-1
- Aug 13 · v Nashville SC (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Club América | CF Monterrey |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-2-0 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 7-2-1 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.