Liga MX (Mexico) · Mon, Oct 26 · 02:00 · Club América vs CF Pachuca
Likeliest: Club América win · 52%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 52% for the home win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Club América52%55%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%24%+3
OursMarket
CF Pachuca21%20%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 59% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 80% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 45% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 76% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Club América
LossDrawWinDrawWin
- Oct 18 · at Club León (A)5-3
- Oct 11 · v CF Monterrey (H)1-1
- Sep 28 · at Club Necaxa (A)4-2
- Sep 20 · v CD Guadalajara (H)2-2
- Sep 13 · at Cruz Azul (A)3-4
CF Pachuca
WinDrawLossDrawLoss
- Oct 19 · at CF Monterrey (A)1-2
- Oct 11 · v Club Necaxa (H)3-3
- Sep 27 · at Santos Laguna (A)0-1
- Sep 21 · v Club Tijuana (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Atlante FC (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | Club América | CF Pachuca |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-4-0 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.