Leagues Cup (North & Central America) · Thu, Aug 27 · 02:45 · Club América vs Columbus Crew
Likeliest: Club América win · 62%
We make it 57% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 46%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Club América62%52%+9
OursMarket
Draw20%25%−5
OursMarket
Columbus Crew18%23%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 54% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 77% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 48% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 75% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 70% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Club América
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Aug 22 · at FC Juárez (A)2-1
- Aug 16 · v Atlético San Luis (H)3-0
- Aug 14 · v Austin FC (H)1-1
- Aug 10 · v Portland Timbers (H)3-1
- Aug 7 · v San Diego FC (H)3-1
Columbus Crew
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- Aug 23 · at Nashville SC (A)2-3
- Aug 19 · v CF Montréal (H)1-2
- Aug 15 · at Charlotte FC (A)1-3
- Aug 11 · v Pumas UNAM (H)1-1
- Aug 7 · v CF Pachuca (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Club América | Columbus Crew |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-4-0 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 1-3-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.