Leagues Cup (North & Central America) · Mon, Aug 10 · 02:15 · Club América vs Portland Timbers
Likeliest: Club América win · 56%
We make it 56% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 41%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Club América56%47%+9
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Portland Timbers19%28%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 59% | −15 |
| Both teams score | 49% | 61% | −12 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 72% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 53% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 63% | +12 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Club América
DrawWinDrawWinWin
- Aug 7 · v San Diego FC (H)3-1
- Aug 2 · v Santos Laguna (H)3-0
- Jul 25 · at Atlante FC (A)1-1
- Jul 19 · at Querétaro FC (A)1-0
- May 11 · at Pumas UNAM (A)3-3
Portland Timbers
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Aug 7 · v Club Puebla (H)5-2
- Aug 2 · v Seattle Sounders FC (H)2-1
- Jul 26 · v Real Salt Lake (H)2-1
- Jul 23 · v FC Dallas (H)2-2
- Jul 17 · at Seattle Sounders FC (A)5-1
| Last 10 games | Club América | Portland Timbers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.