Primera Nacional (Argentina) · Sat, Oct 17 · 20:00 · Club Atlético Chacarita Juniors vs Deportivo Maipú
Likeliest: Club Atlético Chacarita Juniors win · 43%
We make it 47% for both teams to score. The market says 42%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Club Atlético Chacarita Juniors43%44%−2
OursMarket
Draw35%32%+3
OursMarket
Deportivo Maipú22%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 34% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | 42% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 65% | 68% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 65% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Club Atlético Chacarita Juniors
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 10 · at Almagro (A)1-2
- Oct 4 · v Patronato (H)1-0
- Sep 26 · at Colegiales (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · v Quilmes Atlético Club (H)3-0
- Sep 13 · at Ferrocarril Midland (A)0-1
Deportivo Maipú
DrawDrawWinWinDraw
- Oct 10 · v San Martín de San Juan (H)1-1
- Oct 5 · at Nueva Chicago (A)1-0
- Sep 27 · v Temperley (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · v Gimnasia Jujuy (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Almagro (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Club Atlético Chacarita Juniors | Deportivo Maipú |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-7 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-2 | 2-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.