Primera Nacional (Argentina) · Sat, Oct 17 · 20:00 · Club Atletico Colón vs Almirante Brown
Likeliest: Club Atletico Colón win · 51%
We make it 42% for both teams to score. The market says 38%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Club Atletico Colón51%52%−1
OursMarket
Draw32%30%+2
OursMarket
Almirante Brown17%19%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 61% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 33% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 42% | 38% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 81% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 48% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 70% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 0.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Club Atletico Colón
LossWinDrawWinDraw
- Oct 10 · at Mitre (A)0-0
- Oct 3 · v Estudiantes de Buenos Aires (H)1-0
- Sep 26 · at All Boys (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · v Los Andes (H)3-0
- Sep 13 · at Godoy Cruz (A)0-2
Almirante Brown
DrawLossLossLossDraw
- Oct 10 · v San Miguel (H)1-1
- Oct 3 · at San Telmo (A)2-3
- Sep 26 · v Acassuso (H)0-1
- Sep 20 · at Chaco For Ever (A)0-1
- Sep 13 · v Club Ferro Carril Oeste (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Club Atletico Colón | Almirante Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-2 | 1-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.