Liga 1 (Peru) · Fri, Oct 23 · 20:15 · Club Atlético Grau vs Asociación Deportiva Tarma
Likeliest: Club Atlético Grau win · 54%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 58% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Club Atlético Grau54%52%+1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%0
OursMarket
Asociación Deportiva Tarma21%22%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 53% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 50% | +8 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 48% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 72% | 70% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Club Atlético Grau
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- Oct 18 · at Alianza Lima (A)1-3
- Oct 8 · v Los Chankas CYC (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Club Sporting Cristal (A)1-3
- Sep 13 · v Alianza Atlético de Sullana (H)3-1
- Sep 6 · at Deportivo Garcilaso (A)2-4
Asociación Deportiva Tarma
LossLossWinDrawLoss
- Oct 16 · at Los Chankas CYC (A)1-2
- Oct 10 · v FC Cajamarca (H)0-0
- Sep 23 · v Cienciano (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Alianza Lima (A)0-2
- Sep 6 · at Melgar (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Club Atlético Grau | Asociación Deportiva Tarma |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-1 | 0-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.