Liga 1 (Peru) · Thu, Oct 8 · 20:30 · Club Atlético Grau vs Los Chankas CYC
Likeliest: Club Atlético Grau win · 59%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 59% for the home win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Club Atlético Grau59%58%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Los Chankas CYC17%18%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 52% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 41% | 42% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Club Atlético Grau
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Sep 19 · at Club Sporting Cristal (A)1-3
- Sep 13 · v Alianza Atlético de Sullana (H)3-1
- Sep 6 · at Deportivo Garcilaso (A)2-4
- Sep 1 · v Melgar (H)1-0
- Aug 21 · at FC Cajamarca (A)3-1
Los Chankas CYC
LossLossLossLossDraw
- Sep 30 · at Cienciano (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v FC Cajamarca (H)1-2
- Sep 6 · at Club Sporting Cristal (A)0-5
- Aug 29 · v ADC Juan Pablo II (H)3-4
- Aug 23 · at Universitario (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Club Atlético Grau | Los Chankas CYC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 2.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-1 | 0-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.