División Profesional (Bolivia) · Sun, Oct 11 · 21:15 · Club Aurora vs Nacional Potosí
Likeliest: Club Aurora win · 57%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 57% for the home win. The market says 56%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Club Aurora57%56%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%23%0
OursMarket
Nacional Potosí19%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 44% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Club Aurora
DrawDrawWinWinLoss
- Sep 16 · at Guabirá (A)1-3
- Sep 11 · at San Antonio Bulo-Bulo (A)2-0
- Sep 5 · v GV San José (H)3-0
- Aug 27 · at Club Always Ready (A)2-2
- Aug 22 · v Real Potosí (H)0-0
Nacional Potosí
WinLossWinWinLoss
- Sep 16 · v Club Always Ready (H)0-4
- Sep 12 · at GV San José (A)3-0
- Sep 7 · v Blooming (H)2-1
- Aug 25 · at FC Universitario de Vinto (A)0-2
- Aug 22 · v Independiente Petrolero (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Club Aurora | Nacional Potosí |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-1 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.