Champions League (Europe) · Tue, Sep 8 · 16:45 · Club Brugge KV vs Aston Villa
Likeliest: Club Brugge KV win · 51%
A 51% home win. The market says 36%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Club Brugge KV51%36%+16
OursMarket
Draw24%25%−2
OursMarket
Aston Villa25%39%−14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 59% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 61% | +14 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 64% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 48% | +19 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Club Brugge KV
WinWinWinLossWin
- Sep 4 · at Lommel SK (A)1-0
- Aug 30 · at KAA Gent (A)1-2
- Aug 23 · v Cercle Brugge (H)1-0
- Aug 15 · at Oud-Heverlee Leuven (A)3-0
- Aug 7 · v KV Kortrijk (H)3-0
Aston Villa
WinLossLossLossDraw
- Sep 5 · at Hull City (A)0-0
- Aug 31 · v Arsenal (H)0-1
- Aug 23 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)0-4
- Aug 12 · at PSG (A)1-2
- May 24 · at Manchester City (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Club Brugge KV | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-1-1 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.8 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 80% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-1-0 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.