Pro League (Belgium) · Sun, Sep 20 · 16:30 · Club Brugge KV vs KRC Genk
Likeliest: Club Brugge KV win · 65%
A tight one: we make it 65% for the home win. The market says 63%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Club Brugge KV65%63%+2
OursMarket
Draw19%20%−1
OursMarket
KRC Genk16%17%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 67% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 83% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 37% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Club Brugge KV
WinLossWinLossWin
- Sep 13 · v Royal Antwerp FC (H)3-1
- Sep 8 · v Aston Villa (H)2-3
- Sep 4 · at Lommel SK (A)1-0
- Aug 30 · at KAA Gent (A)1-2
- Aug 23 · v Cercle Brugge (H)1-0
KRC Genk
WinDrawWinDrawDraw
- Sep 13 · v KAA Gent (H)1-1
- Sep 6 · at RSC Anderlecht (A)0-0
- Aug 28 · v SK Beveren (H)4-0
- Aug 22 · at Royal Antwerp FC (A)4-4
- Aug 15 · v KVC Westerlo (H)3-2
| Last 10 games | Club Brugge KV | KRC Genk |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 2-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.6 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 57% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 57% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 43% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.