Champions League (Europe) · Wed, Oct 21 · 19:00 · Club Brugge KV vs RC Lens
Likeliest: Club Brugge KV win · 47%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Club Brugge KV47%46%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%24%−1
OursMarket
RC Lens30%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 63% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 61% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.6 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Club Brugge KV
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · v KSC Lokeren-Temse (H)1-0
- Oct 13 · at Inter Milan (A)4-3
- Oct 10 · at RAAL La Louvière (A)4-1
- Sep 20 · v KRC Genk (H)3-0
- Sep 13 · v Royal Antwerp FC (H)3-1
RC Lens
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Oct 17 · at Troyes (A)3-1
- Oct 13 · v Sporting (H)0-2
- Oct 9 · v Olympique Lyonnais (H)2-1
- Sep 18 · at AS Monaco (A)1-2
- Sep 13 · at Le Mans (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Club Brugge KV | RC Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 8-0-2 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 9-0-1 | 2-1-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.