Primera Nacional (Argentina) · Sat, Oct 24 · 20:00 · Club Ferro Carril Oeste vs Chaco For Ever
Likeliest: Club Ferro Carril Oeste win · 66%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 66% for the home win. The market says 64%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Club Ferro Carril Oeste66%64%+2
OursMarket
Draw25%25%+1
OursMarket
Chaco For Ever9%12%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 43% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 38% | 35% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 88% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 36% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 88% | 85% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Club Ferro Carril Oeste
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 17 · v Racing de Córdoba (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · at Central Norte de Salta (A)1-1
- Oct 2 · v Deportivo Madryn (H)0-2
- Sep 26 · at Defensores de Belgrano (A)1-0
- Sep 19 · v Ciudad de Bolivar (H)1-0
Chaco For Ever
WinLossDrawWinLoss
- Oct 17 · v Central Norte de Salta (H)1-2
- Oct 10 · at Deportivo Madryn (A)2-1
- Oct 3 · v Defensores de Belgrano (H)2-2
- Sep 26 · at Ciudad de Bolivar (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · v Almirante Brown (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Club Ferro Carril Oeste | Chaco For Ever |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-2 | 2-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.