Primera Nacional (Argentina) · Sat, Oct 17 · 20:00 · Club Ferro Carril Oeste vs Racing de Córdoba
Likeliest: Club Ferro Carril Oeste win · 65%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 65% for the home win. The market says 64%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Club Ferro Carril Oeste65%64%+1
OursMarket
Draw26%26%0
OursMarket
Racing de Córdoba9%11%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 39% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 38% | 35% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 91% | 89% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 35% | 36% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 87% | 85% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 0.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Club Ferro Carril Oeste
DrawWinWinLossDraw
- Oct 10 · at Central Norte de Salta (A)1-1
- Oct 2 · v Deportivo Madryn (H)0-2
- Sep 26 · at Defensores de Belgrano (A)1-0
- Sep 19 · v Ciudad de Bolivar (H)1-0
- Sep 13 · at Almirante Brown (A)0-0
Racing de Córdoba
LossLossDrawDrawWin
- Oct 12 · v Los Andes (H)1-0
- Oct 3 · at Central Norte de Salta (A)1-1
- Sep 27 · v Godoy Cruz (H)2-2
- Sep 20 · at Deportivo Madryn (A)0-2
- Sep 13 · v Deportivo Morón (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Club Ferro Carril Oeste | Racing de Córdoba |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-2 | 0-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.