Liga MX (Mexico) · Sat, Oct 24 · 23:00 · Club León vs CD Toluca
Likeliest: CD Toluca win · 46%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 46% for the away win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Club León27%30%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+2
OursMarket
CD Toluca46%46%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 70% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 37% | 39% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Club León
WinDrawWinDrawLoss
- Oct 18 · v Club América (H)3-5
- Oct 10 · at Club Puebla (A)1-1
- Sep 28 · v FC Juárez (H)2-1
- Sep 21 · at Querétaro FC (A)1-1
- Sep 15 · v Atlético San Luis (H)2-0
CD Toluca
WinLossDrawLossDraw
- Oct 18 · v Atlético San Luis (H)1-1
- Oct 10 · at Tigres UANL (A)2-3
- Sep 26 · at Cruz Azul (A)3-3
- Sep 21 · v Santos Laguna (H)2-3
- Sep 16 · at Club Puebla (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Club León | CD Toluca |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-2 | 3-2-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.