Leagues Cup (North & Central America) · Sun, Sep 6 · 01:00 · Club León vs Club América
Likeliest: Club América win · 41%
A 35% home win. The market says 25%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Club León35%25%+10
OursMarket
Draw24%25%−1
OursMarket
Club América41%49%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 54% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 51% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 75% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 34% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Club León
WinWinWinDrawLoss
- Sep 3 · at CD Toluca (A)0-2
- Aug 29 · at Atlante FC (A)1-1
- Aug 26 · v Real Salt Lake (H)3-0
- Aug 22 · v CF Monterrey (H)2-0
- Aug 18 · at Club Necaxa (A)2-1
Club América
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Sep 3 · v CF Monterrey (H)2-2
- Aug 30 · v Club Puebla (H)2-0
- Aug 27 · v Columbus Crew (H)2-0
- Aug 22 · at FC Juárez (A)2-1
- Aug 16 · v Atlético San Luis (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Club León | Club América |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 7-3-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.