Liga MX (Mexico) · Sun, Oct 18 · 01:00 · Club León vs Club América
Likeliest: Club América win · 42%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 42% for the away win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Club León28%30%−2
OursMarket
Draw30%27%+3
OursMarket
Club América42%43%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 59% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 70% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 73% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | 41% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Club León
LossWinDrawWinDraw
- Oct 10 · at Club Puebla (A)1-1
- Sep 28 · v FC Juárez (H)2-1
- Sep 21 · at Querétaro FC (A)1-1
- Sep 15 · v Atlético San Luis (H)2-0
- Sep 11 · at Pumas UNAM (A)1-3
Club América
LossLossDrawWinDraw
- Oct 11 · v CF Monterrey (H)1-1
- Sep 28 · at Club Necaxa (A)4-2
- Sep 20 · v CD Guadalajara (H)2-2
- Sep 13 · at Cruz Azul (A)3-4
- Sep 6 · at Club León (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Club León | Club América |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-0-1 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.