Liga MX (Mexico) · Mon, Sep 28 · 01:00 · Club León vs FC Juárez
Likeliest: Club León win · 61%
A tight one: we make it 61% for the home win. The market says 59%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Club León61%59%+2
OursMarket
Draw22%23%0
OursMarket
FC Juárez17%18%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 41% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Club León
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Sep 21 · at Querétaro FC (A)1-1
- Sep 15 · v Atlético San Luis (H)2-0
- Sep 11 · at Pumas UNAM (A)1-3
- Sep 6 · v Club América (H)1-0
- Sep 3 · at CD Toluca (A)0-2
FC Juárez
LossLossLossLossWin
- Sep 19 · v Tigres UANL (H)2-0
- Sep 14 · at Santos Laguna (A)1-2
- Sep 5 · v CF Pachuca (H)0-2
- Aug 31 · at CD Toluca (A)0-4
- Aug 22 · v Club América (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Club León | FC Juárez |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 3-0-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 2.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-1 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.