Liga MX (Mexico) · Sat, Oct 17 · 01:00 · Club Necaxa vs Atlas FC
Likeliest: Club Necaxa win · 37%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Club Necaxa37%39%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+1
OursMarket
Atlas FC35%34%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 66% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 63% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 51% | 53% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Club Necaxa
DrawLossLossLossDraw
- Oct 11 · at CF Pachuca (A)3-3
- Sep 28 · v Club América (H)2-4
- Sep 19 · at Atlético San Luis (A)1-3
- Sep 12 · v Club Puebla (H)0-1
- Sep 6 · at Tigres UANL (A)1-1
Atlas FC
DrawLossDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 11 · v CD Guadalajara (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · at Club Tijuana (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Pumas UNAM (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at CD Toluca (A)2-5
- Sep 6 · v Atlante FC (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Club Necaxa | Atlas FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.