Liga MX (Mexico) · Mon, Sep 28 · 03:10 · Club Necaxa vs Club América
Likeliest: Club América win · 52%
A tight one: we make it 52% for the away win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Club Necaxa21%24%−4
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+2
OursMarket
Club América52%50%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 79% | 76% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 28% | 33% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Club Necaxa
DrawLossDrawLossLoss
- Sep 19 · at Atlético San Luis (A)1-3
- Sep 12 · v Club Puebla (H)0-1
- Sep 6 · at Tigres UANL (A)1-1
- Aug 29 · v Cruz Azul (H)1-3
- Aug 24 · at Pumas UNAM (A)1-1
Club América
WinDrawLossLossDraw
- Sep 20 · v CD Guadalajara (H)2-2
- Sep 13 · at Cruz Azul (A)3-4
- Sep 6 · at Club León (A)0-1
- Sep 3 · v CF Monterrey (H)2-2
- Aug 30 · v Club Puebla (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Club Necaxa | Club América |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-2-7 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.