Liga MX (Mexico) · Sat, Oct 24 · 01:00 · Club Necaxa vs FC Juárez
Likeliest: Club Necaxa win · 49%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 61% for both teams to score. The market says 56%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Club Necaxa49%52%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%24%+2
OursMarket
FC Juárez25%24%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 58% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 56% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 48% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 76% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 68% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Club Necaxa
LossLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · v Atlas FC (H)0-2
- Oct 11 · at CF Pachuca (A)3-3
- Sep 28 · v Club América (H)2-4
- Sep 19 · at Atlético San Luis (A)1-3
- Sep 12 · v Club Puebla (H)0-1
FC Juárez
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- Oct 18 · at Cruz Azul (A)0-5
- Oct 10 · v Club Tijuana (H)1-1
- Sep 28 · at Club León (A)1-2
- Sep 19 · v Tigres UANL (H)2-0
- Sep 14 · at Santos Laguna (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Club Necaxa | FC Juárez |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 1-1-8 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 2.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 2-0-8 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.