Liga MX (Mexico) · Thu, Oct 22 · 01:00 · Club Puebla vs CF Monterrey
Likeliest: CF Monterrey win · 48%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 48% for the away win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Club Puebla24%28%−4
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
CF Monterrey48%46%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 53% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 62% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 54% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 76% | 72% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 33% | 38% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Club Puebla
LossDrawLossDrawDraw
- Oct 17 · at Club Tijuana (A)0-0
- Oct 10 · v Club León (H)1-1
- Sep 27 · at Tigres UANL (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Atlante FC (H)1-1
- Sep 16 · v CD Toluca (H)0-1
CF Monterrey
DrawWinDrawDrawWin
- Oct 19 · v CF Pachuca (H)2-1
- Oct 11 · at Club América (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · at Atlante FC (A)0-0
- Sep 20 · v Cruz Azul (H)1-0
- Sep 13 · v Tigres UANL (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Club Puebla | CF Monterrey |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-3-1 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.