Liga MX (Mexico) · Sat, Oct 10 · 01:00 · Club Puebla vs Club León
Likeliest: Club León win · 41%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 41% for the away win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Club Puebla29%32%−3
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Club León41%40%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 55% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 60% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 45% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Club Puebla
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- Sep 27 · at Tigres UANL (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Atlante FC (H)1-1
- Sep 16 · v CD Toluca (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Club Necaxa (A)1-0
- Aug 30 · at Club América (A)0-2
Club León
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Sep 28 · v FC Juárez (H)2-1
- Sep 21 · at Querétaro FC (A)1-1
- Sep 15 · v Atlético San Luis (H)2-0
- Sep 11 · at Pumas UNAM (A)1-3
- Sep 6 · v Club América (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Club Puebla | Club León |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 3-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.