Liga 1 (Peru) · Sat, Sep 19 · 20:30 · Club Sporting Cristal vs Club Atlético Grau
Likeliest: Club Sporting Cristal win · 71%
A tight one: we make it 71% for the home win. The market says 69%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Club Sporting Cristal71%69%+2
OursMarket
Draw18%20%−1
OursMarket
Club Atlético Grau11%12%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 88% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 29% | 31% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 80% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 87% | 85% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Club Sporting Cristal
WinLossLossWinWin
- Sep 13 · at CD Moquegua (A)2-1
- Sep 6 · v Los Chankas CYC (H)5-0
- Aug 30 · at Sport Boys (A)0-1
- Aug 21 · at Alianza Atlético de Sullana (A)1-3
- Aug 16 · v Sport Huancayo (H)4-1
Club Atlético Grau
WinWinWinLossWin
- Sep 13 · v Alianza Atlético de Sullana (H)3-1
- Sep 6 · at Deportivo Garcilaso (A)2-4
- Sep 1 · v Melgar (H)1-0
- Aug 21 · at FC Cajamarca (A)3-1
- Aug 14 · v Comerciantes Unidos (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Club Sporting Cristal | Club Atlético Grau |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-0 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.