Liga 1 (Peru) · Sun, Oct 18 · 16:00 · Club Sporting Cristal vs Comerciantes Unidos
Likeliest: Club Sporting Cristal win · 70%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 70% for the home win. The market says 72%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Club Sporting Cristal70%72%−2
OursMarket
Draw20%18%+2
OursMarket
Comerciantes Unidos11%10%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 61% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 50% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 90% | 90% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 30% | 28% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 82% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 87% | 88% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Club Sporting Cristal
LossWinWinWinWin
- Oct 11 · at Universidad Técnica de Cajamarca (A)1-0
- Sep 19 · v Club Atlético Grau (H)3-1
- Sep 13 · at CD Moquegua (A)2-1
- Sep 6 · v Los Chankas CYC (H)5-0
- Aug 30 · at Sport Boys (A)0-1
Comerciantes Unidos
LossDrawLossLossDraw
- Oct 10 · v ADC Juan Pablo II (H)1-1
- Sep 18 · at Alianza Atlético de Sullana (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · v Sport Huancayo (H)0-1
- Sep 6 · at Universitario (A)2-2
- Aug 28 · v FC Cajamarca (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Club Sporting Cristal | Comerciantes Unidos |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-0 | 1-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.