Liga MX (Mexico) · Sat, Oct 17 · 03:00 · Club Tijuana vs Club Puebla
Likeliest: Club Tijuana win · 51%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Club Tijuana51%51%0
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Club Puebla23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 54% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 55% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Club Tijuana
WinLossDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 10 · at FC Juárez (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · v Atlas FC (H)0-0
- Sep 21 · at CF Pachuca (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · v Querétaro FC (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · v Pumas UNAM (H)2-0
Club Puebla
WinLossDrawLossDraw
- Oct 10 · v Club León (H)1-1
- Sep 27 · at Tigres UANL (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · v Atlante FC (H)1-1
- Sep 16 · v CD Toluca (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Club Necaxa (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Club Tijuana | Club Puebla |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.