Liga MX (Mexico) · Mon, Oct 26 · 03:00 · Club Tijuana vs Santos Laguna
Likeliest: Club Tijuana win · 47%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Club Tijuana47%49%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+2
OursMarket
Santos Laguna26%25%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 56% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 75% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 53% | 51% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 65% | 66% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Club Tijuana
LossDrawDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 17 · v Club Puebla (H)0-0
- Oct 10 · at FC Juárez (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · v Atlas FC (H)0-0
- Sep 21 · at CF Pachuca (A)2-2
- Sep 12 · v Querétaro FC (H)0-1
Santos Laguna
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 17 · v Querétaro FC (H)5-0
- Oct 11 · at Atlético San Luis (A)2-1
- Sep 27 · v CF Pachuca (H)1-0
- Sep 21 · at CD Toluca (A)3-2
- Sep 14 · v FC Juárez (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Club Tijuana | Santos Laguna |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-0-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.