Ireland 1st Division (Ireland) · Fri, Sep 25 · 18:45 · Cobh Ramblers FC vs Athlone Town
Likeliest: Athlone Town win · 39%
A tight one: we make it 39% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cobh Ramblers FC32%35%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+2
OursMarket
Athlone Town39%38%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 65% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 48% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cobh Ramblers FC
WinDrawDrawWinLoss
- Sep 18 · at Wexford FC (A)1-3
- Sep 11 · at Cork City (A)3-2
- Sep 4 · v University College Dublin (H)1-1
- Aug 28 · v Longford Town (H)2-2
- Aug 21 · at Finn Harps (A)3-1
Athlone Town
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Sep 18 · v Kerry FC (H)3-0
- Sep 11 · at University College Dublin (A)2-2
- Sep 4 · at Finn Harps (A)1-0
- Aug 28 · v Bray Wanderers (H)2-1
- Aug 21 · at Wexford FC (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Cobh Ramblers FC | Athlone Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-2 | 2-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.