Ireland 1st Division (Ireland) · Fri, Oct 9 · 18:45 · Cobh Ramblers FC vs Kerry FC
Likeliest: Cobh Ramblers FC win · 40%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cobh Ramblers FC40%42%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+2
OursMarket
Kerry FC31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 56% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cobh Ramblers FC
DrawWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 2 · at Bray Wanderers (A)4-1
- Sep 25 · v Athlone Town (H)0-0
- Sep 18 · at Wexford FC (A)1-3
- Sep 11 · at Cork City (A)3-2
- Sep 4 · v University College Dublin (H)1-1
Kerry FC
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Oct 2 · at Finn Harps (A)2-1
- Sep 25 · v Wexford FC (H)0-0
- Sep 18 · at Athlone Town (A)0-3
- Sep 11 · v Bray Wanderers (H)0-1
- Sep 5 · at Longford Town (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Cobh Ramblers FC | Kerry FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-2 | 4-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.